The Medellín and Bello housing market in 2026: why so many apartments are delivered shell-stage

Antioquia sold 23,762 homes in 2025 and accounts for 19% of all construction permits issued nationwide, with 3.7 million m² approved — growth almost three times faster than the national average, according to Camacol and vivienda.com.co figures. That volume of new projects is the direct reason so many buyers in the region receive their apartment shell-stage: most developers deliver it that way so each buyer can choose their own finishes.

But there's a warning sign in the data: home sales grew 12.4% in 2025 while actual construction starts fell 23.9% (El Colombiano, 2025-2026 construction and housing outlook). For every unit that actually starts construction, 1.63 units have already been sold — meaning the backlog of shell-stage apartments waiting for finishes will keep growing in the coming years.

Medellín's share of construction in the Aburrá Valley fell from 60% to 25% over the last 15 years, pushing much of the new development toward neighboring municipalities — Bello, Sabaneta, La Estrella, and Rionegro now concentrate the growth that used to be centered in the capital. It's the same reason 44% of households in Medellín now rent, up from 35% in 2015: new housing supply moved, and much of the demand moved with it.

Not evenly. 83% of licensed residential area in the region is concentrated in upper-income strata, while affordable housing (VIS) accounts for only 17% — an imbalance behind a housing deficit of more than 571,000 households in Antioquia, 190,000 in Medellín alone. That imbalance is part of why a well-finished VIS or VIP apartment holds so much value: move-in-ready affordable housing supply remains scarce relative to real demand.

Two practical things. First, mortgage rates could rise from a range of about 11.2%-11.3% to 13%-13.5% in 2026 — which makes locking in a fixed price and a written timeline for your finishes more important, not less, while the rest of your housing budget gets less predictable. Second, with the suspension of the Mi Casa Ya subsidy, VIS housing is under more pressure — one more reason your apartment's finishes should go right the first time, without overcharges or delays that complicate the budget further.